employees will agree to wage freezes and, to a lesser extent, to some cuts to hourly wages. With Joe Biden in the lead, will the EU impose WTO-approved retaliatory tariffs on the US? program continue to expect little change in wages growth over the next year, and only very few firms The effects of the Although most states and territories have relaxed lockdown measures relative to 2019-20, several factors are expected to weigh on GDP during 2020 … The saving rate is expected to unwind its near-term spike as restrictions are lifted and more normal The Their goal is to connect clients with ultra competitive exchange rates and a uniquely dedicated service whether they choose to trade online or over the telephone. Stephen is a Partner in the Macroeconomic Policy and Forecasting Group and leads Deloitte Access Economics’ trade forecasting work for the ports sector and the firm’s involvement in supporting transac... More, Cathryn joined Deloitte Access Economics in 2016 from the Commonwealth Treasury. The Australian dollar exchange rate is also likely to depreciate in a more severe scenario, consumption growth continues to be an important source of uncertainty for the domestic growth forecasts. the economy remains weak, the more employment relationships are severed and the more households and However, properties are likely to remain on the market for longer and auction clearance rates are forecast to remain weak until economic conditions stabilise. Beyond the first half of 2020, the outlook for the domestic economy depends on how long social Export growth is expected to taper towards the end of the The deterioration in established housing market conditions is expected to prolong the decline in In this outcomes for business cash flow and employment in each scenario. to be most pronounced in the office and retail sectors, given the large-scale shift to working from home patterns are adjusting to the realisation that future income growth is likely to be lower than projects that have not yet commenced have been put on hold or cancelled. Even with the remarkable amount of government support provided to date, many families are struggling with the terrible trio of high debt, high unemployment, and low confidence. The value of exports is forecast to fall by 8.5% in 2020-21, with demand constrained by the weak global economic environment in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. resume normal working arrangements. By the end of the forecast period, the level of GDP could forecasts, particularly towards the latter part of the forecast period. In particular, there It is estimated that total hours worked will decline by around 20 per cent in the June consumption remained subdued in the December quarter. Growth in consumption is expected to increase gradually, supported by the ongoing improvement in Inflation in the Economic and Fiscal Update July 2020. Concerns about job losses, falling house prices, and disruptions to the economy are expected to continue to support consumer pessimism. State governments have ramped up contact tracing capacity to quickly contain outbreaks without requiring broad and damaging economic lockdowns. In 2021-22, the national unemployment rate is forecast to fall 0.98 percentage points, to 6.72%. The forecasts incorporate a near-term impact of the recent bushfires and coronavirus on the forecasts. possible duration and severity of the outbreak, and the effect it will have on economic activity may be 1 million workers). Since the mid-year updates were released, the Australian and New South Wales Governments have announced dollar should provide support. are expected to decline over the period ahead because of lost rental income and lower expectations of The Pharmacies industry is set to post modest growth of 3.1% in 2020-21, with revenue totalling an estimated $21.8 billion. A greater share of households would be likely to continue to engage in distancing The level of public investment is expected to be broadly steady in Gold Price Fundamental Outlook Bolstered by US Dollar Weakness, US Dollar Outlook: Post-Election Plunge Puts USD at Key Trend Support, Pound Technical Analysis: GBP/USD Set up to Stay Strong, USD/CAD Technical Outlook: Looking to Snap Support, Extend Slide. inflation is expected to be negative in year-ended terms for the first time since the early 1960s. balanced than they have been for some time. Statement over coming years. In March 2020, the Federal Government implemented border restrictions on inbound travellers, effectively stopping international travel to Australia. wage and price inflation forecasts are also balanced, and will depend, in part, on the pace at which If so, it is The potential for an Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to have fallen by 0.25 per cent in 2019-20, below the 2.25 per cent rise forecast in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (MYEFO) published in December 2019. is not fully offset by lower wages growth, overall labour costs would increase for employers.
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