Forthcoming supplemental materials will provide more detailed comparisons of the current projections with the agency’s previous projections and with those of other forecasters. Those laws—which together are projected to increase the federal deficit by $2.2 trillion in fiscal year 2020 and by $0.6 trillion in 2021—will, in CBO’s assessment, partially mitigate the deterioration in economic conditions and help spur the recovery. Social Security recipients and railroad retirees who are otherwise not required to file a tax return are also eligible and will not be required to file a return. This economic forecast updates the interim forecast that CBO published in May, which focused on 2020 and 2021. Many other analysts at CBO contributed information about the pandemic and the effects of actions taken in response to it. endobj The vast majority of people do not need to take any action. For example, PCE price inflation averages 1.9 percent, close to the Federal Reserve’s long-term objective of 2 percent. Use the "Non-Filers: Enter Payment Info Here" application before the November 21, 2020 deadline if you are eligible for an Economic Impact Payment and: You are not required to file federal income tax returns for 2018 and 2019 for any reason including: Your income is less than $12,200 The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the U.S. retail industry is unprecedented and will have lasting consequences on all segments. This document is one of a series of reports on the state of the economy that the Congressional Budget Office issues each year. How are CEOs and CFOs managing employees, operations and cash flow during the unprecedented COVID-19 crisis? CBO projects that the degree of social distancing will decline by about two-thirds from its April 2020 peak during the second half of this year, leading to an increase in social activities and commerce. The key superannuation reform however in the Budget was the introduction of a new default system where superannuation will follow an individual when they change jobs, reducing the number of duplicate accounts held by employees. Unless this report indicates otherwise, all years referred to are calendar years. There appears to be broad agreement in both the House and the Senate for passing a continuing resolution to keep the government open. ӧz��b�h(�N�$Sxf�bihF���>��S�ވ4�##O�4r$t�%�^��zqJ2��Ct�+��J���G�j�>�Y*���4'�@�8�6R9V=6�P2W�Qy�. A further contributor to the overall uncertainty is that the speed and intensity of the recent downturn have greatly increased the difficulty of recording and compiling reliable economic data; CBO’s projections are based on data that may later be substantially revised. International conditions may also change in unanticipated ways as the pandemic works its way through the rest of the world. For filers with income above those amounts, the payment amount is reduced by $5 for each $100 above the $75,000/$150,000 thresholds. "An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030." On Tuesday, trade officials from the US, Mexico, and Canada finalized details of the trade agreement. The 2020-2021 Federal Budget is all about jobs, jobs and jobs. This Budget provides an additional $98 billion of response and recovery support under the COVID-19 Response Package and the JobMaker Plan. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product,” Accessed Oct. 12, 2020. CBO expects the Federal Reserve to keep its target for the federal funds rate (the interest rate that financial institutions charge each other for overnight loans of their monetary reserves) at 0.1 percent throughout that period. GDP = gross domestic product; PCE = personal consumption expenditures. d. The employment cost index for wages and salaries of workers in private industries. One major driver of CBO’s forecast of the economy for the next several years is the agency’s projections about how the pandemic and social distancing will unfold. <> 4 0 obj Robert Shackleton wrote the report. The deal is not expected to boost the US economy significantly, but its signing removes one bit of uncertainty over the global trade picture. An electronic version is available on CBO’s website (www.cbo.gov/publication/56442). x��]S��*��ǩaɖl�(���˥r��T��� 3{X���%�c�Yv5W�*X�#�[�����i��_Tכ����t���������j�Y=�vt����~�n���~�$,�%Q)���"j�Ã�)Z�]]�s�d�����ú$�L3�GR����a��超'F����>�px�q��ߢ��\���yx�]��� �@&���p���Y�LeA��.~:�����X:��}�8+!$�,OJ���1Of��k��2N���x����y����r��x^���� �T�\���oާ�Pzz0���t��lp�O�J�Dq1q>K�l�.����� |�_&�,r�H�[�)q�Y �J�ʱ|x�Q�?D����@"�/�< zvp�(|8��:��`~����k�U@�J��~י� g�)�+&�ڀ��~U�˟���)9 :��cK]]�7�e>���Bp����g�S�x�#1�����E�o��L_�O�Q*K�WH/M��2P����Z�C. From the third quarter of 2020 through the third quarter of 2021, the degree of social distancing is projected to gradually diminish to zero (even though social distancing may increase at times in some areas), and the effects of fiscal and monetary policy actions are expected to take hold. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents under their individual assessments of projected appropriate monetary policy, Septemebr 2020
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